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Market Watch

Redfin: High-risk areas gaining population

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Market Watch
Wednesday, September 22, 2021

America’s disaster-prone areas are becoming more populous as new residents move in, according to a new report from Redfin. The U.S. counties with the largest share of homes facing high heat, drought, fire, flood and storm risk saw their populations grow from 2016-2020 due to migration, while the counties with the smallest share of homes facing climate risk largely saw their populations decline.

This is according to a Redfin analysis of data from climate-data startup ClimateCheck, county property records and the U.S. Census Bureau.

The 50 U.S. counties with the largest share of homes facing high heat risk saw their populations increase by an average of 4.7 percent from 2016 through 2020 due to positive net migration. Meanwhile, the 50 counties with the largest percentage of homes facing high drought, fire, flood and storm risk experienced average population growth of 3.5 percent, 3 percent, 1.9 percent and 0.4 percent, respectively, due to positive net migration.

“People have been gravitating to places with severe climate risk because many of these areas are relatively affordable, have lower property taxes, more housing options or access to nature,” Redfin economist Sebastian Sandoval-Olascoaga said in the report. “For a lot of people, these benefits seem to outweigh the dangers of climate change. But as natural disasters become more frequent, homeowners in these areas may end up losing property value or face considerable difficulty getting their properties insured against environmental disasters.”

Places with relatively low climate risk have experienced population decline. The 50 counties with the lowest share of homes facing high heat risk saw their populations decrease by an average of 1.4 percent from 2016 through 2020 due to negative net migration. Meanwhile, the 50 counties with the smallest percentage of homes facing high drought, fire and flood risk experienced average migration-driven population declines of 1.1 percent, 1.2 percent and 1.1 percent, respectively.

Bucking the trend, Redfin said, were the 50 counties with the lowest share of homes facing high storm risk, which experienced 0.9 percent population growth.

Of the 50 counties with the largest share of properties facing high heat risk, 40 had median sale prices below the national level ($315,000) in 2020. Of the 50 counties with the largest share of properties facing high storm risk, 30 had median sale prices below the national level last year.  

A February Redfin survey found that the increasing frequency or intensity of natural disasters was a consideration for almost half of respondents who planned to move in the next year.
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