With economic uncertainty still a concern for many forecasters, Fannie Mae Senior Vice President and Chief Economist Douglas Duncan predicts a modest recession, characterized by competing effects of inflation and a strong labor market. Duncan will deliver his 2023 economic outlook at a live event, Oct. 12 from 6 to 8 p.m., at the University Club of New York, according to a news release.
At the event, Duncan will be honored with the Lawrence R. Klein Award for Blue Chip Forecast Accuracy, one of the best-known and longest-standing achievements in economic forecasting. The award is judged and sponsored by the W. P. Carey School of Business at Arizona State University. The winner is selected based on the accuracy of forecasts published in the Blue-Chip Economic Indicators newsletter, compiled and edited by Haver Analytics, Inc.
“It is a real honor for the Fannie Mae forecast team to be recognized with the Lawrence R. Klein Award,” Duncan said in the release. “While it is a permanent challenge to accurately forecast macroeconomic activity, it has been particularly difficult during the period including the pandemic. The advent of unparalleled monetary and fiscal policy actions, combined with the lack of health-related historical information on which to base modelled forecasts, required an atypical amount of judgment and humility.
“Such will continue to be the case in macroeconomic forecasting in the days, weeks, and months ahead, as the repositioning of global supply chains, the ongoing war in Ukraine, global tightening of monetary policy, and fiscal policy constraints challenge us and our forecasting brethren in offering guidance to industry, households, and government,” Duncan added.
“The award is based on the smallest average error for GDP, CPI, and unemployment over the past four years,” Professor of Economics/Office of the University Economist at ASU Director Dennis Hoffman said. “I commend Doug Duncan and his team at Fannie Mae for their remarkable predictions during a period of extensive market fluctuation and instability.”