Total commercial and multi-family mortgage borrowing, and lending is expected to hold steady at a projected $895 billion in 2022, roughly in line with 2021 totals ($891 billion), according to the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA).
The updated MBA forecast said multi-family lending alone will likely fall to $418 billion in 2022–down 11 percent from last year’s estimated record $470 billion.
The MBA forecast anticipates borrowing and lending to grow in 2023, with nearly $950 billion in total commercial real estate lending and $442 billion in multi-family lending.
“The economic and interest rate outlook has shifted since MBA’s last updated commercial real estate finance forecast in February,” MBA Commercial Real Estate Research Vice President Jamie Woodwell said in a release. “The rapid rise in interest rates is expected to take some wind out of the sails of new lending activity, but healthy property fundamentals and strong property values should support the markets and keep commercial real estate mortgage demand at strong levels.
“Borrowing and lending should still match last year’s record levels,” he added. “Multi-family lending is expected to remain robust during the rest of 2022 but is now expected to fall short of 2021’s record-high volumes.”