Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. recently reported its initial look at September 2023 month-end mortgage performance statistics derived from its loan-level database representing the majority of the national mortgage market. As indicated earlier, mortgage performance has been very strong, but recent data suggests delinquency rates may have hit their floor.
September’s numbers support that assumption.
At 3.29 percent, the U.S. delinquency rate was up 12 BPS from August and 13 BPS from last year. That’s the largest, and only the second, annual increase in the last 2.5 years. Even so, the delinquency rate as of September is still roughly three-quarters of a percentage point below pre-pandemic September 2019.
Early-stage delinquencies (30 and 60 days past due) continue to increase. An additional 49,000 borrowers became 30 days delinquent in September, the fourth consecutive monthly rise, while the 8,700 new 60-day delinquencies marked six straight months of increases.
“We also saw the first uptick in serious delinquencies (90-plus days past due) in 2023, and only the second in the past three years,” Black Knight stated in the report. “It was slight (+7,000), and we’ll get into the matter in more granularity in the Mortgage Monitor, but notable.
“Meanwhile, the number of loans in active foreclosure continues to shrink, falling to 214,000 in September, its lowest point since March 2022 and some 25 percent below 2019 pre-pandemic levels,” the report added. “Both foreclosure starts, and completions (sales) were down as well, falling -20.4 percent and 8 percent, respectively.”
And finally, prepayments continue to languish in the face of rising interest rates and seasonal changes to homebuying patterns.