CoreLogic, a residential property information, analytics and services provider, has released its October CoreLogic Home Price Index (HPI) report.
The HPI assesses three decades worth of repeat sales transactions, representing more than 65 million observations sourced from CoreLogic’s databases to provide monthly home price indices for 6,948 U.S. ZIP codes (58 percent of the total U.S. population).
On a month-over-month basis, including distressed sales, home prices increased by only 0.2 percent in October compared to revised September figures. Year over year, home prices nationwide, including distressed sales, increased 12.5 percent in October compared to October 2012. This change represents the 20th consecutive monthly year-over-year increase in home prices nationally.
“In October, the year-over-year appreciation rate remained strong, but the month-over-month appreciation rate was barely positive, indicating that home price appreciation has slowed as expected for the winter,” said Mark Fleming, chief economist for CoreLogic. “Based on our pending HPI, the monthly growth rate is expected to moderate even further in November and December. The slowdown in price appreciation is positive for the housing market as almost half the states are now within 10 percent of their respective historical price peaks.”
Excluding distressed sales, home prices increased 0.4 percent month over month in October compared to September. On a year-over-year basis, excluding distressed sales, home prices increased by 11 percent in October compared to October 2012. Distressed sales include short sales and real-estate owned (REO) transactions.
The CoreLogic Pending HPI, a proprietary metric that provides the most current indication of trends in home prices based on Multiple Listing Service (MLS) data, indicates that November home prices, including distressed sales, are expected to remain at the same level month over month as October, with a projected increase of 12.2 percent on a year-over-year basis from November 2012. Excluding distressed sales, November home prices are poised to rise just 0.4 percent month over month from October and 11.3 percent year over year from November 2012.
“In terms of home price appreciation, the housing market appears to be catching its breath as we head into the final months of 2013,” said Anand Nallathambi, president and chief executive officer of CoreLogic. “The deceleration in month-on-month trends was anticipated as strong gains in home prices over the spring and summer slow in line with normal seasonal patterns and the impact of higher mortgage interest rates.”
Other highlights as of October include:
- Including distressed sales, the five states with the highest home price appreciation were: Nevada (+25.9 percent), California (+22.4 percent), Georgia (+14.2 percent), Michigan (+14.1 percent) and Arizona (+14 percent);
- Including distressed sales, the only state to show depreciation was New Mexico (-0.5 percent);
- Excluding distressed sales, the five states with the highest home price appreciation were: Nevada (+22.5 percent), California (+18.5 percent), Utah (+13.3 percent), Florida (+13 percent) and New York (+12.4 percent);
- Excluding distressed sales, no states posted home price depreciation in October;
- Including distressed transactions, the peak-to-current change in the national HPI (from April 2006 to October 2013) was -17.3 percent. Excluding distressed transactions, the peak-to-current change in the HPI for the same period was -13.1 percent;
- The five states with the largest peak-to-current declines, including distressed transactions, were: Nevada (-40.7 percent), Florida (-37.4 percent), Arizona (-31.5 percent), Rhode Island (-29.3 percent) and West Virginia (-28 percent); and
- 96 of the top 100 Core Based Statistical Areas (CBSAs) measured by population showed year-over-year increases in October 2013.