Ten-X has released its latest Ten-X Residential Real Estate Nowcast, indicating a slight decrease in October home sales. According to the Nowcast, October sales will fall between seasonally adjusted annual rates of 5.21 and 5.56 million, with a targeted number of 5.38 million – which is down 1.6 percent from September but up 0.5 percent from a year ago.
“As we move into the fourth quarter, it looks like both existing home and new home sales are going to finish the year pretty much where they were predicted to be at the beginning of the year – around 5.4 million existing home sales and between (550,000 and 600,000) new home sales,” Ten-X Executive Vice President Rick Sharga said in a press release. “Stubbornly low inventory and tight credit have combined to prevent a more robust housing market recovery in 2016, and it seems likely that 2017 will be more of the same.”
The National Association of Realtors (NAR) recently reported that sales shifted back into a slightly higher range, rising 3.2 percent to a seasonally adjusted rate (SAAR) of 5.47 million units in September. This represents a 0.6 percent year-over-year increase but still is below this year’s highest pace of 5.57 million units in June.
The NAR recently reported a 5.6 percent year-over-year increase in median existing home prices to $234,200 in September. This marks the 55th consecutive month of annual gains, which fell within the September nowcast range of $227,305 and $251,232. The Nowcast suggests median existing-home sales will range between $221,779 and $245,125 in October with a target price of $233,452, down 0.3 percent from September, but up 5.9 percent from a year ago.
“Both the September NAR numbers and October Nowcast show that sales are returning to the higher end of our expected range for the year,” Ten-X Chief Economist Peter Muoio said, noting that a firm labor market, low unemployment, wage growth and low mortgage rates continue to bolster housing demand. “Tight inventory levels continue to be a restraining factor, but the recent uptick of available homes continues to follow our expectation that higher prices will induce more listings.”